praxis22 ([info]praxis22) wrote,
@ 2009-05-28 20:00:00
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Current location:work
Current mood: sick
Entry tags:life

news of the screws
The market sold off while waiting to find out if "foreigners" would continue to buy US Govt debt. They did, so markets rallied.

The news that was ignored was the housing and jobs data:

The U.S. delinquency rate jumped to a seasonally adjusted 9.12 percent from 7.88 percent, the biggest-ever increase, and the share of loans entering foreclosure rose to 1.37 percent, the Mortgage Bankers Association said today. Both figures are the highest in records going back to 1972. Fixed rates rose to 4.91 percent, Freddie Mac said, and an increase in bond yields earlier this week shows rates may continue rising.

The three-year housing decline is proving resistant to efforts by the Federal Reserve and the Obama administration to keep homeowners current on mortgages by allowing them to refinance or sell to buyers enticed by affordable terms. Prime fixed-rate home loans to the most creditworthy borrowers accounted for the biggest share of new foreclosures at 29 percent, MBA said, a sign job losses are hurting homeowners.

“If people don’t have a paycheck they can’t support a mortgage,” Jay Brinkmann, the MBA’s chief economist, said in an interview. “The longer the recession lasts the more people run through their savings reserves, leading to higher delinquencies and higher foreclosures.”
[link]

Perhaps now would be a good time to think about how you're going to live, (and what you're going to live on) in the future, you know it makes sense. [HT SMI]




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(Anonymous)
2009-05-29 10:48 am UTC (link)
Hi Praxis,
How are u doing? I don't understand why USD keeps falling while the economy didn't recover yet.

Thank u for your help!

(Reply to this) (Thread)


[info]praxis22
2009-05-29 01:35 pm UTC (link)
I suspect the generic answer is "sentiment" after Moody's put the UK of negative outlook, there is a suspicion that the "read across" will mean the same for the USA, given that both are heavily tied to the markets, in NY & London, massive consumer debts, and a bust housing boom, all supported by massive government borrowing.

Foreign demand for bonds is still fairly solid. But from what I've seen the demographic is changing. China are switching from T-Bills to bonds, etc.

I'd certainly do lots of research on this if I were you, I don't pay much attention to the currency markets, and they're a rule to themselves, so my hunches may be well wide of the mark.

As for the recovery, it'll be a long while coming, the reasons for this is the massive debt overhang, rising unemployment, and a housing market which has a way to go yet until it gets near bottom. What we've seen so far is "stabilisation" things have stopped getting worse at such a frightening rate, but were years away from real economic recovery IMO.


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